Smartphone market estimates worsen, down by 7.1%

Analysts rethink: smartphone sales this year will drop more than expected. The contraction expected by Gartner for this year will be 7.1% in volume and not 2.2%, as previously estimated by analysts. The reasons are easy to understand: first of all the war in Ukraine, with its impacts on the drop in demand and on the rise in prices along the supply chain, and then the prolonged lockdowns in China.

And even outside the territories affected by the war and the restrictions of the pandemic, the scenario is certainly not rosy. High inflation and fears of a global recession are discouraging consumers around the world from postponing any purchases of new phones, an asset that is not a priority at the moment. So for 2022 Gartner now expects a global volume of 1.46 billion smartphones to be distributed, instead of the 1.6 billion previously estimated. What these data summarize is that the lifecycle for mobile devices has lengthened, Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, told Reuters. For every three months of further use of the old phones by users, about 150 million units are lost, experts said explaining the gap between the first and second market predictions.

We need to consider at least 150 million fewer shipments this year as people, for various reasons, have decided to keep their phone for another three months, instead of changing it. The crisis in the sector particularly affects the giants of mobile telephony with the Chinese market leading the estimates down. The consequence of the repeated blocks for Covid-19, both in the social and productive life for the factories of some Chinese districts, will lead Gartner shipments to China to drop by 18.3% compared to -5.8% at the level global.

More optimistic, but also forced to revise the initial forecasts downwards, it is the other major research and analysis company. Idc now estimates, in its latest quarterly report, a 3.5% contraction in the number of smartphones marketed, instead of the 1.6% growth previously imagined. Volumes should be around 1.31 billion units, slightly lower than Gartner’s hypothesis.