Smartphones in 2026: shrinking market, shifting winners

Shrinking shipments, rising value

Analysts at Counterpoint Research and other firms have revised their outlooks for 2026, forecasting a decline in global smartphone shipments of around 0.9 % to 2.1 % compared with 2025. This shift is attributed primarily to rising memory costs and broader component price inflation, tightening margins and increasing average selling prices for devices.

Digitimes, drawing on supply chain data, estimates that DRAM price increases could reduce total shipments by roughly 1.6 %, turning what was once modest growth into outright contraction.

Despite the decline in units, the total market value is still projected to increase — driven by higher average selling prices as manufacturers shift toward premium models, highlighting a divergence between volume and revenue trends.

Premium players are better positioned

Not all brands will be affected equally by this contraction. Premium manufacturers with strong brand equity, supply chain resilience, and diversified revenue streams are expected to weather the slowdown more effectively than smaller competitors that operate largely on thin margins. Apple and Samsung are commonly seen as the best positioned in this environment. Their longstanding relationships with suppliers, ability to secure memory and other components in advance, and focus on higher-end devices and services mean they are less vulnerable to rising production costs and weakening demand in lower tiers. Sales of flagship models and associated ecosystem services — such as cloud storage, accessories and subscriptions — help sustain profitability even as overall unit volumes ease.