Food crisis and drought: the world risks widespread civil revolutions

The war in Ukraine has upset the global balance. The clash intertwines multiple planes (military, financial, economic, energy) and, right from the start, it went beyond the geographical boundaries of the war theater, with central roles of Turkey and China, opening up to the sad possibility of a planetary extension also through the use of thermonuclear devices.

As the death toll rises, the costs of the military confrontation also reach Europe. The increases in electricity and gas are already weighing on family budgets. And the storm seems to be around the corner: substantial increases in basic necessities are expected, and in some cases already seen. Wheat, corn, oil and soy, first of all. Furthermore, rising inflation is eroding purchasing power. Starting from the connections between the food market and geopolitical dynamics, this contribution intends to offer some reflections from a historical perspective on extractivism and neo-colonial dynamics, also referring to the critical debate on food sovereignty.

The impending food crisis has conditions ‘much worse than the Arab Spring of 2011 and the food price crisis of 2007-2008, when 48 countries were rocked by political unrest, riots and protests’. The alarm was raised by the FAO in a report produced with the Wfp (World food program).

According to the study, the areas most affected by hunger and famine are those that are already in extreme difficulty. In particular, it is Africa, hit by the drastic reduction in exports of wheat and cereals from Russia and Ukraine, to suffer the most. For the FAO Yemen, Nigeria, Ethiopia and South Sudan (where there is an ‘unprecedented drought’) are in a state of ‘maximum alert’, with possible ‘catastrophic’ effects. However, Somalia and Afghanistan are also in danger. In all, 750,000 people ‘risk starvation or death’.