The Handelot Times
Innovation under instability
Why crises often accelerate technology adoption and spark unexpected cycles of growth When economies plunge into uncertainty—whether from pandemics, financial crashes, energy shocks, or geopolitical upheaval—they don’t merely stall: they often become pressure cookers for innovation.
In this article, I’ll explore the forces driving innovation under instability, examine historical and contemporary case studies, unpack the mechanics of technological acceleration during crisis, and draw strategic implications for business leaders in 2025–2026.
1. The theory: crisis as catalyst, not hindrance
1.1 THE “CRISIS PUSH” HYPOTHESIS One theory, often called the crisis push hypothesis, posits that disruptive events compress risk tolerance and accelerate adoption of frontier technologies. In normal times, the cost, inertia, and uncertainty of change inhibit adoption; in crisis, the cost of inaction becomes greater. Empirical work supports this: a recent study of German firms found evidence that COVID-19 accelerated the adoption of frontier technologies (robotics, AI, advanced software) more than would have occurred absent crisis.
1.2 rethinking the diffusion curve Classic models of innovation diffusion (e.g. Rogers’ S-curve) assume a relatively stable environment, where adoption proceeds gradually from early adopters to majority. In crises, those curves often steepen: what might have taken years compresses into months. The perceived benefits outweigh costs almost immediately — the adoption curve accelerates.
1.3 TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS
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