Towards 2023 between recession and inflation: new ways to invest by cushioning the risks

The International Monetary Fund is preparing to further cut the growth estimates of the global economy for 2023. This was announced by the director general Kristalina Georgieva. ‘We have already lowered our projections three times to just

3.2% for 2022 and 2.9% for 2023. And in next week's World Economic Outlook, there will be a new cut for next year.' For the statistics, we will have to wait a few more days, when the IMF report on the global economy will be published. However, the trend is already signaled in Georgieva's words: compared to the worrying scenario outlined at the end of July, 'the risks of recession are increasing: countries that represent about a third of the world economy will suffer at least two consecutive quarters of contraction between this year and the next'. Not only. “Even when there is growth, it will look like a recession due to shrinking real incomes and rising prices,” Georgieva points out.

The aftermath of the pandemic, high inflation, rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine and climate disasters are burning “almost 4 trillion dollars of global wealth, equal to Germany's GDP,” Georgieva says. It is the measure of the potential growth that could have been achieved by 2026, based on the projections made in the absence of the multiple crises, and which instead cannot be achieved.

All the major economies in the world are slowing down», underlines Georgieva: the Eurozone is strongly conditioned by the reduction in gas supplies from Russia, China is penalized by the pandemic and by the profound decline in the real estate market. In the United States, inflation is reducing disposable income and consumption, while rising interest rates are holding back investment.