Wheat, corn and fertilizers: how prices have changed one year after the war in Ukraine

Wheat, corn and fertilizers are back to the same price as before the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. One year into the Russian invasion, commodity prices have finally come down.

In mid-March 2022, when the war had started for three weeks, the price of soft wheat had risen by 31.4% and that of corn by 41%. The trend remained the same, with peaks in July 2022 of up to 40-50%. In the same period, European companies sounded the alarm for the lack of sunflower seed oil, an essential ingredient in both the canning and confectionery industries. The price of fertilizers in the last 12 months February 24, 2023 will be a year of continuing war in Ukraine. After 12 months, the cost of fertilizers has returned exactly to before the war. The price of urea, the most used fertilizer, fluctuates between 600 and 650 euros/ton, in line with the autumn 2021 data, far from the 1000 euros/ton level reached in the first months of the conflict in Ukraine. On the other hand, ammonium nitrate went from 900 to 700 Euros/ton in a few weeks, while phosphates are around 400 Euros/ton, down by 25%. On the other hand, the decreases in potassium-based products were more contained, registering a slight fluctuation (-5%).

These are the data collected by the agricultural consortia of Europe.

The prices of sunflower and soft wheat

But there was not only an increase in fertilizer prices: as anticipated, compared to March 2021, a year later the price of soft wheat had risen by 31.4% and that of corn by 41%. On the other hand, most of the soft wheat Europe uses comes from Ukraine or Russia, which in any case represent 30% of global exports.